Analysts say Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ turnaround is beginning to gain traction after the company reported a stronger-than-expected third quarter and issued its outlook for 2027. However, analysts at Jefferies, Susquehanna and BNP Paribas maintained neutral ratings, pointing to debt, fuel expenses and execution challenges.
Norwegian reported adjusted earnings of $1.12 per share, ahead of its $0.90 guidance and the $0.93 consensus estimate. Net yields fell 6.7% on a constant-currency basis—less than the company’s forecast 8.9% decline and the 8.3% decline analysts expected.
Susquehanna said higher revenue accounted for most of the earnings beat. Occupancy reached 106.5%, compared with guidance of about 104%, while onboard revenue rose 13%, supported by close-in bookings. BNP Paribas also highlighted the better-than-expected yield and earnings results, although a September 30 pre-announcement had already reduced some uncertainty around the quarter.
The analysts were more cautious about 2027. Jefferies lowered its adjusted earnings-per-share estimate to $1.33 from $1.47, mainly because of higher interest expense. Susquehanna cut its estimate to $1.35 from $1.40, citing slower capacity growth and higher fuel and unit costs.
BNP Paribas noted that market expectations already reflected lower earnings in 2027, with interest expense forecast to rise to $860 million–$880 million from $695 million in 2026.
Jefferies also flagged Norwegian’s limited fuel hedging—about 42% for 2027—and expects leverage to remain above six times through the end of that year. Susquehanna said the company’s marketing and revenue initiatives remain on track to support yield growth into the second half of 2027. It will watch the company’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotions for indications ahead of the wave booking season.
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